By JOHN FUND
In the two months since voters gave Republican candidates impressive wins in the New Jersey and Virginia governor's races, unemployment has increased to 10% under a Democratic White House, and Democrats have focused on jamming an increasingly unpopular health care bill through Congress. Now comes another statewide race this month that will likely be read as a follow-up referendum on the Obama administration. Massachusetts holds a special election on January 19 to fill the U.S. Senate seat left open by the death of Ted Kennedy, and even in this bluest of states it may not be a cakewalk for the Democrat.At first glance, the chances of an anti-Democratic tide here appear remote. The Bay State gave Barack Obama 62% of its vote last year, the state hasn't elected a Republican to the Senate since 1972, and Democrats hold seven out of every eight seats in the state legislature. But one of the few Republicans in that legislature, State Senator Scott Brown, is making a serious play to upset the conventional wisdom, which holds that Democratic Attorney General Martha Coakley is a shoo-in for the Kennedy seat. In the process, Mr. Brown is irritating Democrats to distraction.
His first TV ad begins in black and white with John F. Kennedy describing his 1962 tax cut bill: "The billions of dollars this bill will place in the hands of the consumer and our businessmen will have both immediate and permanent benefits to our economy." The screen slowly morphs into an image of Mr. Brown as he calls for a new tax cut by finishing Kennedy's remarks: "Every dollar released from taxation that is spent or invested will help create a new job and a new salary. And these new jobs and new salaries can create other jobs and other salaries, and more customers and more growth for an expanding American economy."
Democrats immediately squawked. Kennedy family friend Philip Johnston called any suggestion that the family would agree with Mr. Brown's statement "highly misleading." Mr. Brown responded that the reaction simply showed how today's Democratic Party differs from that of JFK, noting that the late president "was the president of everybody, and was the first person to call for across-the-board tax cuts." He points to the strong contrast with Ms. Coakley's position on taxes. During a November 30 appearance at Suffolk University, she had what Mr. Brown calls a "Walter Mondale" moment in which she flatly stated: "We need to get taxes up."
Surprisingly, no official polls have been taken in the race yet, though few are betting on a Brown victory. But an upset in a low-turnout election is always a possibility. Consider that in 2007, when support for the GOP was at dismal levels, Republican Jim Ogonowski was still able to hold the winning Democrat to 51% in a special election for a Massachusetts Congressional seat. A year later that same district gave Barack Obama 59% of its votes.
Independent groups are mulling plans to drive down Ms. Coakley's numbers by running ads that would point out that if she loses and Mr. Brown wins, Democrats would then be deprived of the 60th vote they need to pass a final health care bill. Candidate Brown is encouraging such thinking. "I could be the 41st senator that could stop the Obama proposal that's being pushed right now through Congress,'' he told reporters last week. Even holding Ms. Coakley to a narrow victory in uber-liberal Massachusetts would rattle Democratic cages and give members of Congress pause before a final health care vote.
Marty Peretz, the editor-in-chief of the liberal New Republic magazine and a Coakley supporter, nonetheless thinks Mr. Brown "might actually defeat" the Democrat because "voters are scared." He notes that Democrats have gone "hysterical" over the Kennedy tax cut ad Mr. Brown is running. "Maybe their panic is apt," he notes.
Posted at WSJ
