Friday, November 5, 2010

Gov Palin's Endorsement Success Rate: 71% - 90%

Statistical Analysis of Gov. Palin's Endorsements

Governor Palin has endorsed 73 candidates for the US House of Representatives and Senate; state governors and attorney generals. Out of the 73 formally endorsed candidates, 52 have been declared winners, 13 are losses and eight are yet to be determined. Thus far, her success rate is at 71%. If all eight remaining candidates win, her success rate will increase to 81%

As we know, based on her Tweet, Gov. Palin has eliminated 18 out of 20 targets in her Take Back the 20 campaign....

This is a 90% success rate. Metaphorically speaking, Gov. Palin set up a sniper position and eliminated her targets from two miles away...

USAF Master Sgt. Tanya Breed sights in a Barrett M-107 .50 BMG caliber sniper rifle during training at Hurlburt Field, Fla., Sept. 13.

The Function of Endorsements

Many people grossly misinterpret the meaning of endorsement success. We do NOT attribute a candidate's election win solely to Gov. Palin's endorsement. Only a fool would. Candidates do not win and lose solely on endorsements. They win and lose on how well or poorly they run their campaigns and how well their messages resonate with voters. But, endorsements or the lack thereof can be a telltale sign of a well-run campaign versus one that is in deep trouble.

Consider the case of Michael Grimm, who won the NY-13 Congressional seat. Grimm had a large number of endorsements from local and national political heavy hitters, Gov. Palin among them. Grimm also ran a professional, aggressive, and enthusiastic campaign that I was privileged to be a part of. The endorsements were part of of the package that helped propel him to victory, but certainly not all of it. Grimm's campaign was also old school - and it worked. We walked the Election Districts, talking with voters face-to-face about issues that mattered to them. When a voter had an issue, we reported it to the campaign and the voter got a personal call from Grimm or Guy Molinari, our beloved former Borough President.

Now, consider the case of Carl Paladino whose campaign slogan might as well have been, "I love the smell of burning bridges in the morning. It smells" Carl "leave no bridge unburnt" Paladino had few endorsements of any significance. Gov. Palin stayed silent on the NY Gubernatorial race. Her silence spoke volumes. Clearly, she was not going to endorse the mentally unstable Paladino and absolutely not the liberal Democrat who predictably and inevitably won the race.

Endorsements are more critical in primaries where voters are getting to know a candidate for the first time. Endorsements from multiple heavy hitters do help. An endorsement is akin to references we provide when looking for a job and performs the same function. Simply put, endorsements fall in the class of "necessary but insufficient" to a candidate's success.

What Endorsement Success Means

What these numbers mean is that we can count on Gov. Palin in the worst case to make an accurate assessment about about a given candidate's electability and suitability for the office 74% of the time. In the best case, she can do it 90% of the time. The numbers indicate that she is politically astute and seasoned. She's only been doing this for nearly two decades, after all. The numbers indicate that she is a person with considerable political capital and star power.

Professional political analysts and bloggers alike agree that these victories position Gov. Palin well to run for President in 2012. Michael Reagan said so. Jedediah Bila concurs. And Robert Wiles, whose content we syndicate from Palin Promotions delineated why these are her victories, and how the GOP Establishment either contributed absolutely nothing or worked to undermine her.

06-4122 / AK (cn 4122) Air Force Capt. Jammie Jamieson going into the vertical. She serves with the 525th Fighter Squadron at Elmendorf Air Force Base in Alaska, and is the first combat-ready woman fighter pilot to qualify to fly the F-22A Raptor.

"[F]or the boys, who would also like to get the nomination for President of the United States – you know, if they don’t catch up pretty quick, it could be evening in America for them," Michael Reagan said.

Indeed Gov. Palin is showing the world what a woman can do. On November 4, 2010, her mama grizzlies smashed numerous glass ceilings with their sonic booms. In 806 days, Gov. Palin will smash the biggest and hardest one of all.

Sometimes the best man for the job is a woman...

 Palin Twibe