This time last year many media pundits were loudly declaring that this may be the end of the Republican party. The polls seemed to back that up. Almost every demographic was going against them.
What a difference a year makes. The once triumphant Democrats are now staring into a political abyss. And many of them are taking to the lifeboats before they go down with the ship.
Every political year politicians retire. Some of them “retire.” 14 Republicans are leaving office this year. But the story with the Democrats is much more interesting.
Evan Bayh has announced he’s retiring. The Senator from Indiana was very popular in his state. He was ahead by twenty points in the polls until a recent Rassmussen poll, taken after the Scott Brown election in MA, had him trailing congressman Mike Pence 47%-44% and leading congressman John Hostettler by only 45%-41%. These two were planning to run against him in the fall. Bayh cited a lot of reasons for leaving, how politics in the House were trumping getting things done. That’s basically saying he doesn’t want to be associated with the current mess.
Democrat Bill Delahunt of Massachusetts has been in his seat since 1995. He’s also talking about “retiring.” After Scott Brown carried his district 60% to 40% he’s seen the writing on the wall.
Congressman Patrick Kennedy, son of late senator Edward (Ted) is only 43 this year, and has served as a Rhode Island congressman since 1994. Rhode island was once considered a safe liberal state. It voted 65%-33% for Barack Obama in 2008 and 62%-36% for John Kerry in 2004. But the Scott Brown election has shaken things up in New England. And Kennedy, who’s had his share of personal problems, wants out.
The list goes on. But the question is, why should Democrats be quitting now at a time when they’re in control of all three houses of government? Shouldn’t they be at the top of their game? The answer lies in the polls which tell us how happy the people are with their performance. Real Clear Politics, which averages all the polls, shows that 73% of the public disapproves of the job congress is doing. Moreover, President Obama has a 47.6% approval rating on average. When a president is below 50% in an election year, that is almost certain election death for his party. And with the economy still in the doldrums, unemployment high and no real sign of recovery, the prognosis is ugly. The kind where the doctor tells you to take a seat before he tells you the news.
Even major Democrats like Harry Reid, Barbara Boxer, Arlen Specter, Blanche Lincoln are looking very shaky. The public is outraged by the Democrats’ performance and increasingly antagonistic toward the policies of the president. Republicans and third party candidates are now seen as likely to take the House and the Senate sets this year in one of the greatest voter rebellions of our time.
If you’re a politician you have two choices. Stay and go down in flames and be accused as having lost because of the failed Obama administration, or “retire” gracefully, then possibly return later when/if the political winds become more favorable. For a young man like Kennedy or Bayh that’s a safer bet. Even though recapturing a seat is tough, being tarred for life as a failure is a much worse fate. And from all signs and portents, the Obama Administrations legacy will make Jimmy Carter’s look illustrious.
The anger the public is feeling right now is palpable to anyone paying attention. The smarter politicians won’t be placated by the obsequious spin of the MSM who are increasingly out of touch with the pulse of the country. They look at the polls and they know what they mean. There’s a storm brewing out there. Fierce lightning on the horizon and the winds are getting fierce.
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