Tuesday, March 29, 2011
By Daniel Greenfield
The Libyan war may be dumbest war we have ever stumbled into. It is a  war where the Secretary of Defense has admitted we have no national  interest, a war where we don't know on whose behalf we're fighting or  why we're even there. A war that the White House did not bother to run  by either congress or the American people, except after the fact. A war  that appears to be fought at the behest England, France, their oil  companies, and a motley collection of Libyan rebels ranging from former  regime thugs to Al Qaeda.
A  week after launching it, the administration still can't get its own  story straight as to why we're fighting it at all. According to Obama,  he went in because he refused to wait for images of mass graves. Other  things he refused to wait for were basic intelligence, stated objectives  and congressional approval. It took us ten years to decide to remove  Saddam, it didn't even take Obama ten days.
Was there any indication that there would be the implied genocide that  comes with mass graves? Hardly. On Feb 22nd, Libyan diplomats began  claiming in broken English that Gaddafi was committing 'genocide'. Since  they had trouble with the language, it's an open question if they even  knew what genocide was. And since Libya is an Arab-Muslim country and  the civil war is fought between Arab Muslims, who exactly would Gaddafi  be committing genocide against? The Tuaregs are the closest thing Libya  has to a minority-- and they're fighting on his side. If there's a  possible genocide here, it would be of the Tuareg people by the rebels  if they win.
But if Obama was too afraid that there might someday emerge pictures of  mass graves, why then did he oppose the removal of Saddam Hussein? Mass  graves in Iraq are not hypothetical. And 
photos of them are  available. Yet Obama who campaigned on his opposition to a war in which  there were mass graves and in which every option had been exhausted  after a decade-- now leaps into a war to avoid the possibility that he  might ever have to look at photos of mass graves.
This isn't about Obama being too queasy to look at mass graves. If that  were the case we would be invading North Korea, Sudan and the cartel run  parts of Mexico. Gaddafi is not doing anything that half the Middle  East isn't doing, and unlike our close ally Turkey, he's doing it  without employing chemical weapons. We aren't in Libya because it's an  extraordinary human rights situation, but because our decision making  process has become a thorough and complete mess.
What kind of war is it, when a week after it begins, the NATO commander admits that he's examining the possibility that 
maybe we're actually fighting for Al-Qaeda.  Our main enemy in that other war, which we're neglecting in order to  begin a war on yet another front. The very minimal condition for any war  should be to make sure that we aren't fighting on the same side as our  enemies. The only condition lower than that would be to make sure we  aren't pointing the guns at ourselves. A war where we can't do that is a  very bad war indeed.
But don't worry. While we may not be sure who the rebels are yet, Obama  has already proposed arming them. Or rather he's not ruling it out.  Which is to say all options are on the table, except the reasoned and  lawful ones.  
Bad is the operating word in the UK, where 
RAF instructors are being rushed off to the front lines because of a shortage of Typhoon pilots, and 
with no aircraft carrier to deploy them from because it's been cut up for scrap, while the 
Royal Navy flagship is being put up for sale on the military version of eBay. If you're going to start a war, as Prime Minister Cameron has, you should be prepared for it. 
But Libya isn't the kind of war you prepare for, it's the kind of war  you stumble into. One bad idea mushrooming into another one. An error in  judgement by world leaders escalating into a bombing campaign. The only  thing missing is Peter Sellers trying to strangle himself. This is how  liberals think all war happens, and so that's the kind of war they  foisted on us. 
European governments with Libyan oil contracts prematurely celebrating a  rebel victory, only to see the rebel advance turn into a retreat,  scrambling to save the situation by making sure that the rebels win.  Before really figuring out who the rebels are. We are bombing Libya, not  because of the specter of mass graves, but because key European leaders  made a wrong guess about the outcome of a civil war and their political  futures and energy supply hangs in the balance.
Despite  our No Fly Zone, Gaddafi is still winning. Which means that now we have  to get even deeper, to justify our original course of action. Now we  may supply the rebels with arms and begin hitting Libyan armor. Then  we'll have to start bombing armed camps. And if the rebels still can't  pull it off, how many more steps will it take before we start sending  the troops in?
The credibility of Obama and key European allies is on the line. The  Arab League has already made sure to stake out positions on both sides  of the fence. Russia is against it, except when they're sort of for it.  China expects to benefit no matter what happens. It's probably the  safest bet of any player in the game. Obama and Sarkozy have elections  coming up, and they need a win. But their only possible Victory  Condition is either Gaddafi getting on a plane or going in the ground.  And the latter is clearly more likely to happen than the former.
It's not that Gaddafi is worth saving. He isn't. He isn't even worth the  cost of a cruise missile. But it's doubtful that his replacements, most  of whom either worked for him or think the Taliban didn't go far  enough, will be any better. And what's worse is that we haven't done the  due diligence to decide that one way or another. Our military people  are just guessing. And they know that it doesn't matter. The politicians  have committed themselves, which means that even if tomorrow Libya's  rebel council were to appoint Osama bin Laden as its chief, some way  would be found to rationalize and normalize the whole thing.
That's how the dominoes of stupidity work. Sarkozy and Cameron fall on  Obama, he fingers his chin and tugs on his earlobes while pondering the  NCAA draft picks. Samantha Power shows up eager for an opportunity to  put her interventionist ideas to the test, with the promise of  international support. Obama checks his calendar and decides that they  can get it done while he's vacationing with his family in Rio. Imagine  Will Smith filling in for Peter Sellers, and you get some idea of how  ridiculous and poorly thought out 
this whole farce really is. 
Libya isn't just an optional war, it's a war we began fighting before we  even knew we were fighting it. It's a war that's being renamed even as  it's being escalated. Odyssey Dawn sounds like an exotic perfume. What  about Kinetic Military Action, it sounds like a feature for the latest  video game. Anything but an honest admission that this is an undeclared  war on behalf of the losing side in a civil war. The side we decided to  choose before we even knew what that side was.
And that's the real crime here. The revelation of how little thought and  concern went into this war. How the major players, stumbled into this  thinking only of themselves. Sarkozy and Cameron dreaming of oil  contracts, Samantha Power of forcing her interventionist vision on the  world, and Obama, hoping a few billion spent on bombing Libya will help  him in the polls. The criminal thoughtlessness behind Obama's decision  to go to war-- mirrors the criminal thoughtlessness of his party in  turning him into a viable candidate after a few months in the Senate.

 
 
The  confused leaders of the ad hoc coalition all expect Gaddafi to do the  reasonable thing, but that's how they got into trouble to begin with,  when they assumed that Libya would be just like Egypt which would be  just like Tunisia. But Gaddafi isn't Mubarak, he isn't even Saddam  Hussein. What he is, is authentically crazy. Not the usual crazy that's  so commonplace in the Arab world. This isn't Baghdad Minister of  Information crazy, or GPS Shark crazy or any of the usual melange of  conspiracy theories, cunning ploys and contradictory beliefs that are  commonplace among regional leaders. No, this is actual insanity. That  means it may be possible that Gaddafi will get on a plane tomorrow and  fly to Malta and announce that he is resigning to build an entry portal  to paradise. Or more likely he will just hang on to the bitter end,  spending his fortune on arms and mercenaries. And we will spend ours  firing cruise missiles at pickup trucks.
Which means this war may turn into Grenada or Iraq-- or anything in  between. It may be resolved tomorrow or three years from now. There  really is no way to know, because of how much we don't know. The  tactical maxim that 'no plan of operations survives first contact with  the enemy' is more relevant here than ever, because of the sheer  ignorance and lack of planning that went into this war. Liberals mocked  Rumsfeld's 'Known Unknowns' and 'Unknown Unknowns', and here they find  themselves in a war filled with 'Unknown Unknowns', things that they  didn't even know they needed to know. Like how wars really work.
Sultan Knish