At the end of Part 1 of this series I asked the question: What happens when Americans, perhaps watching a debate, a speech, or a town hall meeting, begin to realize that Palin is the candidate that they agree with? Yet we had been told, countless times, that Palin is controversial and holds extreme positions (though Obama is never described as such), and here we sit, agreeing with these “crazy” ideas. How will this effect her electability? There are 5 major issues that will win or lose the 2012 Election for someone, if they can handle those issues correctly.
And for the first time ever, Barack Obama will be running in an election where he actually has a political record and has actions to be judged on. Pretty startling fact for a guy running for his second term in the White House. There can be no more myths about where he stands on economic, social, foreign, and domestic issues. No more imaginary “take a scalpel to the budget” or tax cut talk. Not even the media could spin that very well today. There are a handful of major issues that the Republican nominee can use to beat Obama over the head with in 2012. Sarah Palin is the only major candidate who can debate all of these issues without serious conflicts of the past. This makes her both credible and electable.
So fine, Obama and Palin are debating. 100 million people are watching. They are all expecting Palin to be a moron and then are shocked when she isn’t. And then the issues come up. And here we are, wondering who the extremist is. And they debate The Big 5.
Healthcare: Obama, obviously, supports his healthcare plan. Republicans, even he of Romneycare, unequivocally vow to dismantle and replace the program. It has never been popular, even one year after. Even with the most leading questioning pollsters can only come up with a tie. A March 13, 2011 CNN Poll found opposition to Obamacare at a stunning 59%, with support at just 37%. Rasmussen Regular polling finds double-digit support in opposition. A March 19 Gallup poll found that 70% of respondents thought the expensive overhaul would either do nothing for them or make their care worse. A Bloomberg poll found 65-32% of respondents opposed the main clause of the bill, the individual mandate. A February CBS Poll found 51%-34% oppose the bill. This is what we call consensus. And who holds the extremist view? Not Palin. Who agrees with the public? Not Obama.
Spending/Deficit: I think the election of 2010 speaks for itself. As voters rushed to throw out as many Democrats as they could from local and state positions and replace them with “right-wing extremists” the Obama White house was still pretty sure that this whole “hissyfit” was because he was half-black. Yes, because if throwing out a bunch of old white liberals and replacing them with young, and quite diverse I might add, conservatives isn’t a sign of racial hatred towards Obama, I don’t know what is. Obama’s spending is indefensible. It is easy pickings for a Governor who cut spending even while running surpluses. A little-know fact among the public that will be sure to warm their hearts. A March 21 CBS poll showed 68% of respondents thought the deficit was a serious problem, while another 26% said it was somewhat serious. That’s a whopping 94% who think it’s serious. And no, Obama does not fall into that 94%. For someone who has never run anything, he is really good at running a deficit. Obama’s main theme in 2008 was Bush’s deficits. I think that card may run out (but he will try).
Jobs/Taxes: Obama promised if we spent $1 Trillion, unemployment would never go beyond 8%. Not only did it immediately soar past 8% into the 10% range, it hasn’t even flirted with 8% in almost 2 years. As Palin pointed out in a March 24th Facebook posting, the real unemployment is almost double that (unless you believe giving up looking is a sign of a recovering economy). Despite Obama declarations that “The stimulus has worked as planned” the plan was “never go above 8%.” And Republicans always win on taxes. Except, of course, in 2008 where Obama positions himself as the tax-cutter with constant promises of tax cuts for 95% of Americans. Obama simply out-taxed McCain.
Immigration: Jan Brewer won the hearts (and votes) of Arizonans by being one of the first border-state politicians to take this issue seriously. Again, who would be controversial here? Despite laughable claims by the Obama administration on their “border toughness” the public is squarely in the opposite camp. A Jan. 17 USA Today/Gallup poll found opposition to amnesty at 55-43%. An NBC poll was a near identical 55%-43%. A Quinnipiac Poll found 60% Disapproval (28% approval) of Obama’s handling of Immigration with 68% stating he should focus more on enforcing laws to prevent illegal immigration that worrying about legalizing them. A CBS Poll found 88% of respondents feeling illegal immigration is either a very or somewhat serious problem. Who is extreme here?
Energy: The Green movement is becoming less important as gas prices are skyrocketing along with everything that relies on gas to get made. The Green Movement is losing ground as impractical and costing jobs and money. And who has better experience here than a certain governor from a certain state? In 2008, Obama voters were running through the streets announcing they weren’t gonna have to worry about silly things like gas prices and mortgage payments, because Obama was going to deliver.
So there they are: The Big Five. Five issues that can win or lose a Presidential Election, and Palin is on the right side of all of them. She can be on the offensive on every one, as Obama is left defensively responding or flat-out lying (but, alas, he has a record now!). She can go after spending, healthcare, jobs, energy, and immigration. Where she can succeed, the other will stumble. Romney’s big skeleton is Healthcare. Sure, he can say it was different because it was a state issue. But, alas, the principles of his state law were liberal. Gingrich loses on immigration and energy. Huckabee loses on immigration and spending.
In 2008, McCain dropped the ball on half of these issues. Obama out-conservatived (in rhetoric anyway) John McCain on spending, taxes, jobs, and energy. Immigration was a tie for equal ineptitude. McCain had the edge nowhere. Palin is electable because she is most in tune with public opinion on all of the issues.
Supposed “electable” candidates like McCain, Dole, and Bush 41 (after a courtesy term) are DOA as they believe what they have been told: Americans like moderates. They don’t, really. Conservatives sat 2008 out because they did not have a candidate at the top of the ticket to vote for. America is a conservative country, and it takes a conservative to win. Not only is Sarah Palin the only major candidate that is completely tuned-in to public opinion on the big 5 issues, but she is also the only candidates who can put together all of the necessary components to win against the $1 billion candidate. But that is a matter for “Elites Way Off on Palin Electability: Part 3 – Components of Victory.”
Poll Insider
