Sharron Angle surge unnerving Nevada Democrats

 By MOLLY BALL | 10/8/10 10:56 AM EDT Updated: 10/8/10 12:46 PM EDT

New polling out of Nevada is unnerving Democrats who fear Republican Sharron Angle’s campaign is surging despite enduring millions of dollars’ worth of TV ad attacks from Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.

The three most recently released public polls show Angle with a nominal edge, though all have been within the margin of error.

While Reid’s campaign insists there is nothing to be nervous about, one Nevada Democratic strategist said that’s not the vibe behind the scenes.

“Reid’s people are really antsy,” said the strategist, who spoke on condition of anonymity because Reid’s far-reaching political machine tends to come down hard on those who talk out of school. “That’s why their external message has been to try really, really hard to discredit these polls. Angle is building a lot of momentum, and they don’t know how to stop it. This is exactly what happened during the primary.”

In response to the new polling, campaign pollster Mark Mellman was drafting a memo Thursday to reassure staff and donors that they shouldn’t put any stock in the surveys.

Mellman noted to POLITICO that two of the three were automated polls conducted over the course of one night — which traditional pollsters insist is a less reliable method — and he pointed out that one-night polls also don’t account for the Las Vegas area’s large population of night-shift workers, who tend to be union-member Democrats.

“The momentum is with us in this race,” Reid adviser Sig Rogich said. “That’s according to reliable data that I’ve heard about. If you look at the structure of those other polls, I think you’ll find the numbers are skewed.”
Reid’s campaign wouldn’t share the specifics but insisted internal polling has the majority leader “consistently ahead,” according to Mellman.

Angle’s campaign is nevertheless seizing on the most recent polls. Within hours of the release of a Thursday Rasmussen Reports poll showing Angle up 50 percent to 46 percent, the Republican’s campaign had blasted out a fundraising appeal seeking more donations “now that we’ve got all the momentum.”
“These polls have put the Democrats in panic mode,” the solicitation crows.

Robert Uithoven, a Reno GOP consultant whose candidate, Sue Lowden, was defeated by Angle in the primary, said Reid is running out of time and ammunition to convince Nevada voters not to support Angle.
“She’s endured three months of being defined by the Harry Reid campaign before she was able to do a really significant media buy,” Uithoven said. “He had essentially all of June, July and August to define her and create some real separation, and he wasn’t able to do it. She’s still within the margin of error, and if that’s the case going into Election Day, that benefits the Republican this year.”

Reid’s ads have been on television nonstop since last October, Uithoven noted. “People have been watching Harry Reid’s ads for a year now, and they have yet to move his numbers in a way that would create separation with Sharron Angle.”

The first of the polls, an automated survey conducted last weekend and released Tuesday by Fox News, showed Angle ahead with 49 percent to Reid’s 46 percent. Another poll, conducted Oct. 1-5 and released Wednesday for CNN and Time, put Angle up 42-40 among likely voters. That poll included Nevada’s unique “none of the above” ballot option, which was selected by a whopping 10 percent — a testament to the electorate’s discomfort with both candidates. It also included Tea Party candidate Scott Ashjian, who drew 7 percent.

The third poll, the automated Rasmussen survey, noted that Angle’s 4-point lead was ”the widest gap between the two candidates since late June.”

Mellman asserted that even in the live interview survey, the CNN/Time poll where Reid was up 43 percent to 32 percent among registered voters but trailed among likely voters, the numbers didn’t add up.
“If Reid is ahead by 11 among registered voters but behind by 2 among likely voters, as they’ve deemed it, that would have to mean he’s behind by a 20 or 30-point margin among unlikely (registered) voters,” Mellman said. “That’s just not a reasonable construction of reality. They’re just not that different.”

After her upset win in the June 8 Republican primary, Angle took a lead in early polling. But as intense media scrutiny was applied to her — and some of her controversial past statements and issue positions were revealed —- Reid seized the advantage. Of the 20 publicly released polls conducted in July, August and September, 13 showed Reid ahead, while two had the two candidates tied.

Reid’s camp puts the most stock in a late September survey conducted by respected GOP pollster Glen Bolger for a Nevada business group. It showed the incumbent ahead by 5 points, 45-40, with a 4.5-point margin of error.

Developments in the coming days also may move the needle. Angle released a brutal new ad Thursday accusing Reid of voting for taxpayer-funded Viagra for child molesters. New unemployment numbers released Friday morning showed the national unemployment rate holding steady at 9.6 percent; since May, Nevada has had the nation’s highest unemployment rate, a fact Angle has sought to pin on Reid.
Reid’s campaign insists the senator is still well-positioned.

“The reality is, our internal polls have Sen. Reid up by a few points,” spokesman Jon Summers said.

Politico