The Betfair Contrarian: Why Sarah Palin will win the 2012 Republican Presidential nomination

Who will take on Barack Obama for the 2012 Presidential election? Betfair punters expect Mitt Romney to get the Republican nomination while some have even speculated that Donald Trump could have a crack at the White House. The Betfair Contrarian explains why everybody's favourite Alaskan is his choice... 

Palin v Obama in 2012?

The Contrarian has proven in the past that he's even more adept at making money out of politics than an expense-fiddling MP, his latest triumph coming when opposing David Miliband at 1.43 in last year's Labour leadership battle. He's spotted another big opportunity - backing Sarah Palin to be the Republican candidate for the 2012 election at the huge price of 10.0. Wondering why you should put your money on someone with as many critics as fans? Let the Contrarian explain...

"The Republican Party leadership vacuum"

This was a term coined by Washington Post journalist Dana Milbank in reaction to billionaire Donald Trump 46.0 tearing down the house at last month's Conservative Political Action Conference when he delivered a speech hinting at an unlikely push for the presidency. Milbank concluded that the positive reaction to a figure as politically uninvolved as Trump, whose views far from mirror those of the Republican party, demonstrates the lack of credible leaders. Such a situation lends itself to opting for a candidate that, while potentially divisive, has the strength of character and conviction in their beliefs to win voters round, boxes that even Palin's enemies would concede that she emphatically ticks.

There are lessons in the Democrats' 2008 success

Barack Obama's landslide victory illustrated that a relatively inexperienced, charismatic politician with a touch of celebrity status is sometimes more likely to capture the imagination of the public than uninspiring establishment veterans. The Republicans' 2008 choice John McCain was dubbed "McSame" and dismissed as a George W Bush clone, while the current 2012 favourite Mitt Romney 4.5 has fallen victim to nicknames like Mittbot in reference to his perceived robotic delivery.

Palin is the antithesis of Obama

Obama's landslide surge to the White House and subsequent rather flat performance has left the electorate underwhelmed, and opened the door for the Republicans' unprecedented mid-term gains, for which Palin earned much credit. Their 2012 campaign will focus on Obama's shortcomings and promote an alternative, and there's nobody better suited to that role than Palin, who has been on his case at every setback of his tenure. She also has the invaluable experience of having been a key player in the team that opposed him last time. That defeat will have been hugely educational, much as Richard Nixon benefitted from the lessons of his 1960 loss to JFK to see off George McGovern by record-breaking margins in 1972.

Allegations of widespread unpopularity are unproven
Palin constantly complains about biased reporting from what she labels the "lamestream media" and her supporters are adamant that the press portrayal of her as widely disliked is inaccurate. There could well be substance to that theory, with a national poll at the time of the last election showing that just 19.6 per cent of citizens trust most news media reporting. Evidence of this is her daughter Bristol's showing in the 2010 series of Dancing With the Stars, in which she exceeded expectations to finish third, surviving on five separate occasions despite registering the lowest score, progress that was credited to many Americans warming to Palin senior and therefore voting for the daughter.

Running mates often go on to be presidential candidates

If reality TV voting patterns aren't enough to convince you, there are a fair few examples of running mates, as Palin was for McCain in 2008, going on to stand for the presidency further down the line. Some, like Lyndon Johnson and George Bush I, succeeded victorious candidates, but it is not unheard of for running mates in unsuccessful campaigns to later earn a chance to stand for the big job, with Bob Dole a recent Republican example, battling with Bill Clinton in 1996 having previously been part of a failed Gerald Ford bid.

Betting Betfair